GUEST BIO
Ilan Berman is Senior Vice President of the American Foreign Policy Council (AFPC), headquartered on Capitol Hill. A leading expert on Iran, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Russian foreign policy, he has consulted for the CIA, the State Department, and the Department of Defense. He is a Board member of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty and the Middle East Broadcasting Networks, and has been called one of America’s “leading experts on the Middle East and Iran” by CNN. He is the author of Tehran Rising, among other books. X: @ilanberman | Website: ilanberman.com
KEY TOPICS
- The 47-year history of U.S.-Iran conflict since the 1979 Islamic Revolution
- Obama’s JCPOA and how $150 billion in sanctions relief accelerated Iran’s regional expansion
- Operation Midnight Hammer and last summer’s strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites
- Operation Epic Fury: the four phases and strategic objectives
- The Iranian opposition’s do-or-die moment for regime change
- The Iranian people’s protest cycle and why America keeps failing to support them
- Iran's proxy network: Hezbollah, Hamas, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps
- Russia and China's role: drone tech transfers, Starlink jamming, and information warfare
- America’s $850M information budget vs. China’s $10 billion propaganda machine
- Gulf allies’ concerns: Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain’s security needs after the conflict
- The IRGC’s consolidation of power and Iran’s transition to military dictatorship
- What American citizens can do to support the mission
TIMESTAMPED TOPIC BREAKDOWN
00:28 — Narrator introduction
00:32 — Jenny Beth introduces today’s topic: Operation Epic Fury
01:02 — Ilan Berman’s background and expertise at AFPC
03:22 — Jenny Beth requests the full Iran briefing
03:42 — The 47-year history: Iran’s conflict with America begins
04:48 — The 1979 Islamic Revolution and Iran’s ideological transformation
05:58 — Iran’s expansionist ideology and its nuclear advancement
07:03 — Obama’s JCPOA: $150 billion in sanctions relief to the Ayatollahs
08:07 — JCPOA aftermath and Iran’s expanded proxy network
09:11 — Israel attacks the nuclear program; Operation Midnight Hammer
10:08 — Why we’re back: ballistic missiles and delivery systems unaddressed
11:14 — What Operation Epic Fury is designed to accomplish
12:01 — Evaluating the operation: military vs. political picture
13:14 — The military plan: systematic, methodical, coordinated with Israel
14:16 — Political ambiguity and the disinformation narrative online
15:07 — The four phases of Operation Epic Fury explained
16:17 — The political endgame: the signal for Iranians to rise up
17:11 — Economic and political clocks ticking on the administration
18:01 — White House signals: regime change or a deal with the rump regime
19:02 — Iran’s strategy: attacking 13 neighboring Arab countries
19:55 — Gulf allies leaning in: Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Bahrain
20:46 — What should America do to reassure Gulf partners?
23:44 — Why did Iran attack its neighbors? The strategic calculus
25:43 — The Iranian opposition: capability and will
26:08 — Potential Iran deal and what it means for the Iranian people
26:47 — America’s track record on regime change: hard lessons and humility
28:41 — The accelerating protest cycle and why America keeps forgetting to help
30:47 — The regime imported Iraqi and Yemeni militiamen to shoot protesters
31:59 — Targeting the tools of domestic repression: IRGC and Basij headquarters
33:04 — The White House 15-point negotiating plan and Iran’s response
33:34 — Voice of America and the information warfare crisis
34:11 — Radio Free Europe, Middle East Broadcasting Network, and radio vs. digital
36:50 — Why the U.S. information apparatus was dismantled after the Cold War
37:52 — Russia and China jamming Starlink inside Iran
38:50 — The information deficit: $850M U.S. vs. $10B China, $2.5B Russia
40:58 — The information war around the Iran narrative online
42:22 — Russia, China, and Iran: one axis or separate problem sets?
43:40 — Venezuela and Iran: Trump recognizes it’s one coordinated threat
44:40 — Ukraine, Russia, and what the Iran conflict signals to Beijing
45:04 — Ukraine’s fight as the opening front of Russian expansionism
46:07 — Zelensky’s outreach to Gulf countries and its message to Washington
48:16 — Russian drone technology transfer to Iran: more capable systems coming
49:13 — Taiwan: China’s military preparation for reunification
50:30 — American resolve in Iran being watched in Beijing
50:56 — Iran’s proxy network explained: Hezbollah, Hamas, and the IRGC
52:07 — Hezbollah in Lebanon: parliament seats, social services, and militia
53:10 — The contest for the soul of Lebanon
54:44 — The killing of Qasem Soleimani and its lasting impact on Iran’s proxies
55:24 — Iran’s transition from clerical regime to IRGC military dictatorship
56:26 — The new Supreme Leader and IRGC consolidating power
58:06 — What American citizens should do: the stakes and the information battle
01:00:18 — The danger of judging the conflict a failure too early
01:01:47 — Jenny Beth’s closing remarks and related episode reference
01:02:24 — Final invitation: subscribe, like, find the show on all platforms
01:02:51 — Narrator closing
LINKS
Show website: jennybethshow.com
TPPA: teapartypatriots.org
Guest website: afpc.org | ilanberman.com
Guest X: @ilanberman